THE PATRIOTS DON’T have a run game. Well, they do, but instead of handing the ball off to a running back, New England ‘run’ the ball using quick, short, passes to their wide receivers.
When Julian Edelman was out injured, Tom Brady’s average time to throw the football was 2.45 seconds per Pro Football Focus. With his favourite short-yardage target back last week, Brady’s average release time was a phenomenal 2.13 seconds.
This completely negated the Chiefs’ much vaunted pass rush — as you can see above — and was a significant part of the reason the Pats’ offensive line did not give up a single sack against one of the league’s best defensive fronts.
2. Use Rob Gronkowski to force defensive mismatches
There is no better tight end in the NFL than Gronk. There’s probably never been a better tight end than Gronk. And the Patriots use him very wisely, not just in his traditional position, but also lining him up to the outside to create mismatches in defence.
The reason for that is simple, Gronkowski — standing at nearly two metres tall and weighing 120kg — is much bigger and stronger than the corner backs and safeties that will be asked to cover him in that position.
Think back to the very first game of this season. Three times the Patriots lined #87 up outside the numbers in the redzone against the Steelers and three times they came away with a touchdown on the drive. Of course, they won’t all be as easy as the score above.
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3. Keep Jamie Collins on the field
Jamie Collins is one of the league's best at tackling running backs. Kathy Willens
Kathy Willens
The Patriots gave up 135 yards on the ground against the Chiefs and 179 to the Broncos when these two met back in week 12.
However, New England were without Jamie Collins in that first meeting and that could prove significant as Collins, when partnered with Dont’a Hightower, forms possibly the league’s best linebacking combination.
Collins’ ability to turn potential touchdown runs into short gains could prove invaluable but some doubts remain over his fitness. The Patriots need him to play nearly every snap if they hope to slow down the Denver run game.
What three things do the Broncos need to do to win
1. Allow Peyton Manning to be a game manager
While Peyton Manning will always have his name mentioned in the conversation as to who is the greatest quarterback of all time, the late autumn of his career has seen him transform into George Best at the New York Cosmos.
Sure, the name and number are familiar but the play — like the example above — is not. Where once Manning was asked to go out and almost single-handedly win games, now Broncos fans cross every gloved finger and doubled-socked toe hoping he just doesn’t cost them the game.
If Manning can produce anything close to 15 of 25 passes for 150 yards and no picks, and the defence and run game perform to their peak, his team have a chance. If he’s the guy who gave away 17 interceptions this season, the Broncos are in big trouble.
As we already know, the Patriots are a team that like to involve their back field in their passing attack but it’s not something their opponents in the AFC Championship Game were particularly good at last weekend.
Even though he was playing very conservatively, Manning completed just two of four passes thrown to his running backs, gaining only 11 yards against the Steelers.
Even on the ground, the pairing of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson were sluggish at best, rushing for 110 yards on 31 attempts. Take away the one big play — Anderson’s 34 yard gain above — and their average yardage per attempt was just 2.5. Nowhere near good enough.
Per ESPN Stats and Info, in his last 16 postseason games, Tom Brady is an entirely different quarterback when he faces pressure than when he gets the ball away quickly.
In the games where he faced more pressure his completion rate dropped (68.1% to 62.1%), yards per attempt dropped (7.8 to 6.2) while the number of interceptions he threw grew (five to 12).
They’re significant numbers but, to actually force pressure, the Broncos will need to slow down the quick passes by jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage and blitz, blitz and blitz some more. That’s very difficult to do on every single play.
So who will win?
The Patriots go into the game as three point favourites. Given that the game is taking place in Mile High, this means that Vegas actually believes New England are six point favourites but the Broncos get three points for being the home team.
I think six is probably a more accurate number, even if their record on the road to Denver is far from stellar. The Patriots could easily have lost last weekend against the Chiefs but, as is the New England way, they didn’t and this feels like another one of those games where they give their opponents every chance to win but don’t quite let them get there.
The AFC Championship Game is far from Brady v Manning
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 8.05pm
What three things do the Patriots need to do to win
1. Get the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands quickly
THE PATRIOTS DON’T have a run game. Well, they do, but instead of handing the ball off to a running back, New England ‘run’ the ball using quick, short, passes to their wide receivers.
When Julian Edelman was out injured, Tom Brady’s average time to throw the football was 2.45 seconds per Pro Football Focus. With his favourite short-yardage target back last week, Brady’s average release time was a phenomenal 2.13 seconds.
This completely negated the Chiefs’ much vaunted pass rush — as you can see above — and was a significant part of the reason the Pats’ offensive line did not give up a single sack against one of the league’s best defensive fronts.
2. Use Rob Gronkowski to force defensive mismatches
There is no better tight end in the NFL than Gronk. There’s probably never
been a better tight end than Gronk. And the Patriots use him very wisely, not just in his traditional position, but also lining him up to the outside to create mismatches in defence.
The reason for that is simple, Gronkowski — standing at nearly two metres tall and weighing 120kg — is much bigger and stronger than the corner backs and safeties that will be asked to cover him in that position.
Think back to the very first game of this season. Three times the Patriots lined #87 up outside the numbers in the redzone against the Steelers and three times they came away with a touchdown on the drive. Of course, they won’t all be as easy as the score above.
3. Keep Jamie Collins on the field
The Patriots gave up 135 yards on the ground against the Chiefs and 179 to the Broncos when these two met back in week 12.
However, New England were without Jamie Collins in that first meeting and that could prove significant as Collins, when partnered with Dont’a Hightower, forms possibly the league’s best linebacking combination.
Collins’ ability to turn potential touchdown runs into short gains could prove invaluable but some doubts remain over his fitness. The Patriots need him to play nearly every snap if they hope to slow down the Denver run game.
What three things do the Broncos need to do to win
1. Allow Peyton Manning to be a game manager
While Peyton Manning will always have his name mentioned in the conversation as to who is the greatest quarterback of all time, the late autumn of his career has seen him transform into George Best at the New York Cosmos.
Sure, the name and number are familiar but the play — like the example above — is not. Where once Manning was asked to go out and almost single-handedly win games, now Broncos fans cross every gloved finger and doubled-socked toe hoping he just doesn’t cost them the game.
If Manning can produce anything close to 15 of 25 passes for 150 yards and no picks, and the defence and run game perform to their peak, his team have a chance. If he’s the guy who gave away 17 interceptions this season, the Broncos are in big trouble.
2. Get their running backs involved in the game
As we already know, the Patriots are a team that like to involve their back field in their passing attack but it’s not something their opponents in the AFC Championship Game were particularly good at last weekend.
Even though he was playing very conservatively, Manning completed just two of four passes thrown to his running backs, gaining only 11 yards against the Steelers.
Even on the ground, the pairing of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson were sluggish at best, rushing for 110 yards on 31 attempts. Take away the one big play — Anderson’s 34 yard gain above — and their average yardage per attempt was just 2.5. Nowhere near good enough.
3. Pressure Tom Brady
Per ESPN Stats and Info, in his last 16 postseason games, Tom Brady is an entirely different quarterback when he faces pressure than when he gets the ball away quickly.
In the games where he faced more pressure his completion rate dropped (68.1% to 62.1%), yards per attempt dropped (7.8 to 6.2) while the number of interceptions he threw grew (five to 12).
They’re significant numbers but, to actually force pressure, the Broncos will need to slow down the quick passes by jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage and blitz, blitz and blitz some more. That’s very difficult to do on every single play.
So who will win?
The Patriots go into the game as three point favourites. Given that the game is taking place in Mile High, this means that Vegas actually believes New England are six point favourites but the Broncos get three points for being the home team.
I think six is probably a more accurate number, even if their record on the road to Denver is far from stellar. The Patriots could easily have lost last weekend against the Chiefs but, as is the New England way, they didn’t and this feels like another one of those games where they give their opponents every chance to win but don’t quite let them get there.
Verdict: The Patriots by 5.
– First published 13.05, 23 January
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